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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">clinmed</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Клиническая медицина</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Clinical Medicine (Russian Journal)</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">0023-2149</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2412-1339</issn><publisher><publisher-name>ООО «Медицинское информационное агентство»</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.30629/0023-2149-2026-104-6-463-470</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">clinmed-1497</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ОРИГИНАЛЬНЫЕ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЯ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>ORIGINAL INVESTIGATIONS</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Математическое моделирование ожидаемой эффективности эмпирической антибиотикотерапии перипротезной инфекции</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Mathematical modeling of the expected effectiveness of empirical antibiotic therapy for peri-prosthetic infection</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5750-4459</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Любимова</surname><given-names>Л. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Lyubimova</surname><given-names>L. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Любимова Людмила Валентиновна — врач-клинический фармаколог</p><p>Чебоксары</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Lyudmila V. Lyubimova — clinical pharmacologist </p><p>Cheboksary</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">borisova-80@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4408-1888</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Микишанина</surname><given-names>Е. А.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Mikishanina</surname><given-names>E. A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Микишанина Евгения Арифжановна — методист научно-образовательного отдела; канд. физ.-мат. наук, преподаватель факультета прикладной математики, физики и информационных технологий</p><p>Чебоксары</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Evgeniya A. Mikishanina — Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Methodologist of the Research and Educational Department; Lecturer at the Faculty of Applied Mathematics, Physics, and Information Technologies</p><p>Cheboksary</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9976-7866</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Павлова</surname><given-names>С. И.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Pavlova</surname><given-names>S. I.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Павлова Светлана Ивановна — д-р мед. наук, профессор, заведующая кафедрой фармакологии, клинической фармакологии и биохимии</p><p>Чебоксары</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Svetlana I. Pavlova — Doctor of Medical Sciences, Professor, Head of Department of Pharmacology, Clinical Pharmacology and Biochemistry</p><p>Cheboksary</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-3"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5262-0197</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Любимов</surname><given-names>Е. А.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Lyubimov</surname><given-names>E. A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Любимов Евгений Александрович — врач-анестезиолог-реаниматолог</p><p>Чебоксары</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Evgeny A. Lyubimov — anesthesiologist-intensive care physician</p><p>Cheboksary</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>ФГБУ «Федеральный центр травматологии, ортопедии и эндопротезирования» Минздрава России</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Federal Center for Traumatology, Orthopedics and Arthroplasty of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-2"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>ФГБУ «Федеральный центр травматологии, ортопедии и эндопротезирования» Минздрава России; ФГБОУ ВО «Чувашский государственный университет им. И.Н. Ульянова»</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Federal Center for Traumatology, Orthopedics and Arthroplasty of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation; I.N. Ulyanov Chuvash State University</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-3"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>ФГБОУ ВО «Чувашский государственный университет им. И.Н. Ульянова»</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>I.N. Ulyanov Chuvash State University</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2026</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>28</day><month>08</month><year>2026</year></pub-date><volume>104</volume><issue>6</issue><fpage>463</fpage><lpage>470</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Любимова Л.В., Микишанина Е.А., Павлова С.И., Любимов Е.А., 2026</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2026</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Любимова Л.В., Микишанина Е.А., Павлова С.И., Любимов Е.А.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Lyubimova L.V., Mikishanina E.A., Pavlova S.I., Lyubimov E.A.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.clinmedjournal.com/jour/article/view/1497">https://www.clinmedjournal.com/jour/article/view/1497</self-uri><abstract><p>Перипротезная инфекция (ППИ) представляет серьезную проблему в ортопедической практике. При неизвестном возбудителе эмпирическая антибактериальная терапия (АБТ) основывается на локальных эпидемиологических данных. Цель исследования: расчет ожидаемой эффективности эмпирической АБТ, основанный на микробиологическом мониторинге возбудителей ППИ, с использованием математического моделирования.</p><sec><title>Материал и методы</title><p>Материал и методы. Проведен ретроспективный анализ 379 бактериальных изолятов, выделенных при ППИ тазобедренного, коленного и плечевого суставов (2018–2024 гг.) Микробиологическая идентификация и тестирование чувствительности выполнены с использованием стандартных методов. Рассчитывался показатель ожидаемой эмпирической эффективности (ПОЭЭ) антибиотиков.</p></sec><sec><title>Результаты</title><p>Результаты. Частота встречаемости коагулазонегативных стафилококков (СoNS) составила 39,6% случаев, Staphylococcus aureus — 28,5%, грамотрицательных бактерий (ГОБ) — 10,3%, Streptococcus — 8,7%, Enterococcus — 5,3%. Определены антибиотики со стабильно высоким ПОЭЭ (≥ 80% во все периоды): ванкомицин, линезолид, тигециклин. К препаратам со средним ПОЭЭ (50–79%) отнесены ципрофлоксацин/левофлоксацин, клиндамицин, тетрациклин, рифампицин, аминогликозиды, триметоприм-сульфаметоксазол, меропенем. Препараты с низким ПОЭЭ (≤ 49%) — эритромицин, азтреонам и тобрамицин. Выявлена негативная динамика снижения чувствительности CoNS к фторхинолонам (с 70,0 до 47,3%; p = 0,014), ко-тримоксазолу (с 82,0 до 55,9%; p = 0,007). Оптимальной комбинацией для стартовой эмпирической терапии является схема «ванкомицин +меропенем» с предполагаемой расчетной эффективностью ≥ 87,4% в отношении более 90% возбудителей ППИ.</p></sec><sec><title>Заключение</title><p>Заключение. Математическое моделирование эффективности АБТ на основе локальных данных о возбудителях и их чувствительности — перспективный инструмент для оптимизации эмпирической терапии ППИ.</p></sec></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>Periprosthetic infection (PJI) is a serious problem in orthopedic practice. In the case of an unknown pathogen, empirical antibiotic therapy is based on local epidemiological data.</p><p>The aim of this study is to calculate the expected effectiveness of empirical antibiotic therapy based on microbiological monitoring of PJI pathogens using mathematical modeling.</p><sec><title>Material and methods</title><p>Material and methods. A retrospective analysis of 379 bacterial isolates isolated in the PJI of the hip, knee and shoulder joints (2018–2024) was carried out. Microbiological identification and sensitivity testing were performed using standard methods. The indicator of expected empirical eff ectiveness (IEEE) of antibiotics was calculated.</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>Results. The incidence of coagulase-negative staphylococci (CoNS) was 39.6%, Staphylococcus aureus was 28.5%, gram-negative bacteria was 10.3%, Streptococcus was 8.7%, and Enterococcus was 5.3%. Antibiotics with consistently high IEEE (≥ 80% in all periods) were identifi ed: vancomycin, linezolid, and tigecycline; with an average IEEE (50–79%) — include ciprofl oxacin/levofl oxacin, clindamycin, tetracycline, rifampicin, aminoglycosides, trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole, and meropenem; with a low IEEE (≤ 49%) — include erythromycin, aztreonam, and tobramycin. A negative trend of decreasing the sensitivity of CoNS to fl uoroquinolones (from 70.0 to 47.3%; p =0.014), co-trimoxazole (from 82.0 to 55.9%; p =0.007) was revealed. The optimal combination for the starting empiric therapy is the scheme «vancomycin+meropenem» with the estimated calculated effi ciency ≥ 87.4% against more than 90% of the pathogens of PJI.</p></sec><sec><title>Сonclusion</title><p>Сonclusion. Mathematical modeling of the effectiveness of antibiotic therapy based on local data on pathogens and their sensitivity is a promising tool for optimizing empiric therapy for PJI.</p></sec></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>перипротезная инфекция</kwd><kwd>ППИ</kwd><kwd>антибиотикорезистентность</kwd><kwd>математическое моделирование</kwd><kwd>показатель ожидаемой эмпирической эффективности</kwd><kwd>эмпирическая антибиотикотерапия</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>periprosthetic infection</kwd><kwd>PJI</kwd><kwd>antibiotic resistance</kwd><kwd>mathematical modeling</kwd><kwd>expected empirical efficacy</kwd><kwd>empirical antibiotic therapy</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Renz N., Perka C., Trampuz A. Management of periprosthetic infections of the knee. 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