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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">clinmed</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Клиническая медицина</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Clinical Medicine (Russian Journal)</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">0023-2149</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2412-1339</issn><publisher><publisher-name>ООО «Медицинское информационное агентство»</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.30629/0023-2149-2025-103-6-457-462</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">clinmed-1174</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ОРИГИНАЛЬНЫЕ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЯ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>ORIGINAL INVESTIGATIONS</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Прогностическая модель определения серологических маркеров целиакии у пациентов с IgA-нефропатией</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>A prognostic model for the determination of serological markers of celiac disease in patients with IgA nephropathy</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3787-1147</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Манцаева</surname><given-names>М. Е.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Mantsaeva</surname><given-names>M. E.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Манцаева Мария Евгеньевна — ассистент кафедры внутренних болезней с курсами семейной медицины, функциональной диагностики, инфекционных болезней, профессиональных болезней медицинского факультета; врач-нефролог</p><p>Москва</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Maria E. Mantsaeva — Assistant of the Department of Internal Medicine with courses in family medicine, Functional Diagnostics, Infectious Diseases, Occupational Diseases of the Faculty of Medicine; nephrologist</p><p>Moscow</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">mariyamantsaeva@yandex.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0459-0488</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Корабельников</surname><given-names>Д. И.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Korabelnikov</surname><given-names>D. I.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Корабельников Даниил Иванович — канд. мед. наук, доцент, заведующий кафедрой внутренних болезней с курсами семейной медицины, функциональной диагностики, инфекционных болезней, профессиональных болезней медицинского факультета, ректор</p><p>Москва</p><p>Подольск</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Daniil I. Korabelnikov — Candidate of Medical Sciences, Associate Professor, Head of the Department of Internal Medicine with courses in Family Medicine, Functional Diagnostics, Infectious Diseases, Occupational Diseases of the Faculty of Medicine, Rector of the Autonomous Educational Institution of Higher Professional Education</p><p>Moscow</p><p>Podolsk</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7063-6563</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Борисов</surname><given-names>А. Г.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Borisov</surname><given-names>A. G.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Борисов Алексей Геннадьевич — канд. мед. наук, доцент кафедры внутренних болезней с курсами семейной медицины, функциональной диагностики, инфекционных болезней, профессиональных болезней медицинского факультета; доцент кафедры общей врачебной практики и поликлинической терапии; главный врач</p><p>Москва</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Alexey G. Borisov — Candidate of Medical Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department of Internal Medicine with courses in Family Medicine, Functional Diagnostics, Infectious Diseases, and Occupational Diseases at the Medical Faculty of the Autonomous Educational Institution of Higher Professional Education; Associate Professor of the Department of General Medical Practice and Polyclinic Therapy</p><p>Moscow</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-3"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>АНО ДПО «Московский медико-социальный институт им. Ф.П. Гааза»; МЧУ «Отраслевой клинико-диагностический центр ПАО «Газпром»; ФКУЗ «Главный клинический госпиталь Министерства внутренних дел России»</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Moscow Haass Medical and Social Institute; Branch Clinical and Diagnostic Center of Gazprom Public Joint Stock Company; Federal State-owned Healthcare Institution “Main Clinical Hospital of the Ministry of Internal Aff airs of the Russian Federation”</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-2"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>АНО ДПО «Московский медико-социальный институт им. Ф.П. Гааза»; ФГКУ «1586 Военный клинический госпиталь» Минобороны России</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Moscow Haass Medical and Social Institute; 1586 Military Clinical Hospital</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-3"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>АНО ДПО «Московский медико-социальный институт им. Ф.П. Гааза»; ФГБОУ ДПО «Российская медицинская академия непрерывного профессионального образования» Минздрава России; ГБУЗ «Городская поликлиника №11 Департамента здравоохранения города Москвы»</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Moscow Haass Medical and Social Institute; Russian Medical Academy of Continuous Professional Education; State Budgetary Healthcare Institution «City polyclinic № 11 of the Moscow Department of Health»</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2025</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>31</day><month>10</month><year>2025</year></pub-date><volume>103</volume><issue>6</issue><fpage>457</fpage><lpage>462</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Манцаева М.Е., Корабельников Д.И., Борисов А.Г., 2025</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2025</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Манцаева М.Е., Корабельников Д.И., Борисов А.Г.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Mantsaeva M.E., Korabelnikov D.I., Borisov A.G.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.clinmedjournal.com/jour/article/view/1174">https://www.clinmedjournal.com/jour/article/view/1174</self-uri><abstract><p>IgA-нефропатия (IgA-H) — наиболее распространенная форма хронического гломерулонефрита. Результаты ранее проведенных экспериментальных и клинических исследований позволяют говорить о существовании потенциальной патогенетической энтероренальной оси, опосредующей развитие IgA-H, где заболеваниям, сопровождающимся клинически очевидным или субклиническим воспалением кишечника, отведена ведущая роль. Поскольку повсеместный скрининг на предмет целиакии (ЦК) у пациентов с IgA-H не предусмотрен, необходим универсальный инструмент, который поможет врачу определить необходимость дополнительного обследования, что в конечном итоге расширит возможности лечения. Цель: разработать прогностическую модель для определения вероятности выявления серологических маркеров ЦК в сыворотке крови у пациентов с IgA-H. Материал и методы. В исследование включены 92 пациента в возрасте от 18 до 63 лет с морфологически подтвержденной IgA-H. Средний возраст (M ± SD) составил 34,66 ± 9,28 года. Распределение по полу: мужчины — 87 (94,6%), женщины — 5 (5,4%). Медиана длительности заболевания до установления диагноза IgA-H с помощью биопсии почки составила 20 (8–48) мес. Всем пациентам проведено комплексное обследование, в том числе определены серологические маркеры ЦК в сыворотке крови. На основании полученных данных методом бинарной логистической регрессии построена прогностическая модель определения вероятности серологических маркеров ЦК у пациентов с IgA-Н в зависимости от протеинурии, САД и IgA. Результаты. Полученная регрессионная модель оказалась статистически значимой (p &lt; 0,001). Площадь под ROC-кривой составила 0,872 ± 0,053 с 95% ДИ: 0,768–0,976 (p &lt; 0,001). Чувствительность и специфичность модели составили 85,0 и 91,7%, соответственно. Заключение. Полученная прогностическая модель может помочь врачам-клиницистам проводить отбор пациентов с IgA-H для скринингового обследования на наличие ЦК. В результате будут расширены возможности терапии в виде рационального назначения аглютеновой диеты в комплексе с нефропротективной терапией ингибиторами ангиотензинпревращающего фермента, блокаторами рецепторов ангиотензина, что повысит эффективность лечения и улучшит прогноз.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>IgA nephropathy (IgA-H) is the most common form of chronic glomerulonephritis. The results of previously conducted experimental and clinical studies suggest the existence of a potential pathogenetic enterorenal axis mediating the development of IgA-H, where diseases accompanied by clinically obvious or subclinical intestinal infl ammation play a leading role. Since widespread screening for celiac disease (CD) in patients with IgA-H is not provided, a universal tool is needed to help the doctor determine the need for additional examination, which ultimately expands treatment options. Objectivе. To develop a prognostic model to determine the probability of detecting serological markers of CD in blood serum in patients with IgA-H. Material and methods. The study included 92 patients aged 18 to 63 years with morphologically confi rmed IgA-H. The average age (M ± SD) was 34.66 ± 9.28 years. Gender distribution: men — 87 (94.6%), women — 5 (5.4%). The median duration of the disease before diagnosis of IgA-H by renal biopsy was 20 (8–48) months. All patients underwent a comprehensive examination, including serological markers of CD in the blood serum. Based on the data obtained by binary logistic regression, a prognostic model for determining the probability of serological markers of CD in patients with IgA-H depending on proteinuria, systolic blood pressure and IgA was constructed. Results. The obtained regression model turned out to be statistically signifi cant (p &lt; 0.001). The area under the ROC curve was 0.872 ± 0.053 with 95% CI: 0.768–0.976 (p &lt; 0.001). The sensitivity and specifi city of the model were 85.0% and 91.7%, respectively. Conclusion. The obtained prognostic model can help clinicians to select patients with IgA-H for screening for the presence of CD. As a result, the possibilities of therapy in the form of rationaladministration of an aglutene diet in combination with nephroprotective therapy with ACE/ARB will be expanded, which will increase the eff ectiveness of treatment and improve the prognosis.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>IgA-нефропатия</kwd><kwd>целиакии</kwd><kwd>серологические маркеры</kwd><kwd>антитела</kwd><kwd>прогноз</kwd><kwd>математическая модель</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>IgA-nephropathy</kwd><kwd>celiac disease</kwd><kwd>serological markers</kwd><kwd>antibodies</kwd><kwd>prognosis</kwd><kwd>mathematical model</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Шилов Е. М. Нефрология. Клинические рекомендации. Под ред. Е. М. Шилова, А. В. Смирнова, Н. Л. Козловской. Москва: ГЭОТАР-Медиа. 2016:816.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Shilov, E. M. 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